New Calling Experiment

Since the results of the experiment on call scheduling were good (with the experimental method having a slight edge over the current protocol), I've been allowed to test the experimental method against other contenders. The experimental method is described in a prior post.

This month, I'm testing the experimental method which uses the predicted value for contact probabilities (MLE) across the four windows against another method which uses the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) of the predicted probability. This quite often implies assigning a different window for calling than the experimental method.

The UCB method is designed to attack your uncertainty about a case. Lai ("Adaptive Allocation and the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem," 1987) proposed the method. Other than the fact that our context (calling households to complete surveys) is a relatively short process (i.e. few pulls on the Mult-Armed Bandit), the multi-armed bandit analogy fits quite well.

In my dissertation, I did some simulations that suggested that the UCB approach might beat out the MLE approach over the long run. But that it would fall behind early. In other words, it learns early and then exploits that learning later. Those data were simulated. We'll see how it works on the real thing...

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Tailoring vs. Targeting

One of the chapters in a recent book on surveying hard-to-reach populations looks at "targeting and tailoring" survey designs. The chapter references this paper on the use of the terms among those who design health communication. I thought the article was an interesting one. They start by saying that "one way to classify message strategies like tailoring is by the level of specificity with which characteristics of the target audience are reflected in the the communication." That made sense. There is likely a continuum of specificity ranging from complete non-differentiation across units to nearly individualized. But then the authors break that continuum and try to define a "fundamental" difference between tailoring and targeting. They say targeting is for some subgroup while tailoring is to the characteristics of the individual. That sounds good, but at least for surveys, I'm not sure the distinction holds. In survey design, what would constitute ...

"Responsive Design" and "Adaptive Design"

My dissertation was entitled "Adaptive Survey Design to Reduce Nonresponse Bias." I had been working for several years on "responsive designs" before that. As I was preparing my dissertation, I really saw "adaptive" design as a subset of responsive design. Since then, I've seen both terms used in different places. As both terms are relatively new, there is likely to be confusion about the meanings. I thought I might offer my understanding of the terms, for what it's worth. The term "responsive design" was developed by Groves and Heeringa (2006) . They coined the term, so I think their definition is the one that should be used. They defined "responsive design" in the following way: 1. Preidentify a set of design features that affect cost and error tradeoffs. 2. Identify indicators for these costs and errors. Monitor these during data collection. 3. Alter the design features based on pre-identified decision rules based on ...

What is Data Quality, and How to Enhance it in Research

We often talk about “data quality” or “data integrity” when we are discussing the collection or analysis of one type of data or another. Yet, the definition of these terms might be unclear, or they may vary across different contexts. In any event, the terms are somewhat abstract -- which can make it difficult, in practice, to improve. That is, we need to know what we are describing with those terms, before we can improve them. Over the last two years, we have been developing a course on Total Data Quality , soon to be available on Coursera. We start from an error classification scheme adopted by survey methodology many years ago. Known as the “Total Survey Error” perspective, it focuses on the classification of errors into measurement and representation dimensions. One goal of our course is to expand this classification scheme from survey data to other types of data. The figure shows the classification scheme as we have modified it to include both survey data and organic f...

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